VamoSphere: A Hoverview, (Winter 2024/25)…

(12/29/24)—WinterLust. Champagne powder to bubbly on the sands, icicles to sunny isle cycles: The holiday and hemispherically hibernal season yields times of blustery to balmy travel, with record traffic numbers amid stormy roadways, seas and skies. 

Given nearly 120m Americans taking off over Christmas week, eight million by air alone, travel could hardly be more pervasive—with TSA checkpoints apparently moving more smoothly than ever. But it’s all good, until it isn’t. For such massive mobility/transportation flows more often than not beget a sleigh load of tangles and snafus.

Winter of Our Disconcert.

WinterLest. Most recently came news of the fiery South Korean crash of a Jeju Airlines plane, slamming into a runway barrier at Muan International Airport and exploding, killing at least 179 passengers. The low-cost carrier’s  Flight 7C2216, a 15-year-old 737-800, possibly fell victim to a bird strike or technical failure, as its flaps and landing gear apparently malfunctioned prior to landing.

More broadly, an errant downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 over Kazakhstan (with 38 fatalities) was reportedly strafed by Russian antiaircraft weaponry (echoes of Malaysia Airline MH17?). Both accidents only heightened holiday tensions, as further evidenced by the fatal triple shooting on a Phoenix Sky Harbor airport concourse Christmas night.

This, as drone swarms and laser beams prompt FAA bans over mainly East Coast skies for now. While winter weather conditions bury much of the US, atmospheric rivers swamp the west—wreaking havoc on airline schedules, forcing delays/ground stops and terminal jam-ups by the day. Such disruptions and dislocations only exacerbate control tower anxieties stemming from severe air traffic controller shortages, to where certain neophyte college grads are said to be rushed into OJT at the consoles as veterans burn-out or retire. Not to mention American Airlines’ vendor tech-wreck meltdown Christmas Eve, freezing all its flights for several crucial hours.

In Europe, Magdeburg, Germany’s second Christmas Market massacre, lone terrorist driven by a former Saudi psychiatrist/activist, hit at a point when EU borders and passport rules are already tightening, and ‘overtouristed’ destinations increasingly cut daily visitation times and increase entry fees—even as other countries/places welcome more traveler winterludes, yet go untrodden.

Frosty Air.

For the airlines themselves, it is definitely thrive time, with record passenger numbers and ever stronger profits. Even though the US Congress pressures carriers over fare spikes and fee spreading, majors aim to further upscale their riderships and service/amenities, growth slowed only by planemakers’ production/delivery backlogs. And with a new administration, such federal jawboning is likely to ease.

Meanwhile lower-cost carriers face stiffening headwinds. Spirit struggles through bankruptcy in the wake of its JetBlue marriage flame-out. Southwest Airlines still navigates through its operational/boarding and board issues with the activist Elliot investor group; Frontier offers fleeting ‘All you can fly’ pass promotions; Ryanair and EasyJet trim their growth projections.

In any case, the global airline industry continues to shrink—Alaska Airline absorbing Hawaiian Air, Lufthansa gains a 41% stake in ITA, then in short order, Korean Air subsumes Asiana Airlines.

Which taken together essentially foments a tierfully stratified air travel market overall: binge to business to bargain classes, distinctly impacting inflight comfort and conviviality, let alone gate to onboard confrontations. Be they conflicts over cabin seating and storage, mishaps and misbehaviors—safety breaches to aisle scuffles to stowaways in the extreme.

Wintry and Wet Dreams.

Beyond friendly or fiendly skies, there is a winterfestering of issues with motor vehicle travel surfacing holiday after holiday. Add to that ongoing matters of rail (e.g., Florida’s Brightline-fire engine crossing collision), cruise lines, even tropospheric space flights. Accordingly, cooler Vamigré strategies of recovery, remedy and redress will be forthcoming—not least on everything from shortchanging to shortcomings, junk fees or bad food. To that, we surely toast.

So, sooo much to cover…and uncover. Thus bundle and buckle up, or shed and sunscreen away: wherever we may roll, whichever way best floats our mode. For ’tis the season to be winterlusting all right, be it with a proverbial snowball’s chance, or in swells. (MTC…)

Hoverview, Autumn 2024: Falling For the Leaves.

(10/18/24)—Falling, falling—here’s what’s falling into place this Autumn travel season:

Inflation is easing; petrol prices (ppg) have been dropping. Some airfares are falling, although not nearly enough. Rail and motor coach fares are cut to near bargain pricing; cruise ship packages are sailing just this side of underwater.

Lodging and short-term (B&B type) rental rates are down from summer highs, and destinations worldwide are falling all over themselves to roll out their welcome mats. Now, if this is what the so-called ‘off season’ is dealing us travelers, Vamigré says let’s start going off with abandon.

Autumn Leavings.

Still, airlines are striving to shrink and consolidate. Majors reap due to their capacity squeezes and route cutting; lower fare carriers weep by comparison—from Spirit and Frontier to easyJet. Budget leader Southwest Airlines is struggling with an internal battle between current management and activist Elliot Investment group. While Alaska Airlines merges with Hawaiian Air.

Meanwhile, carriers are desperate for new, cleaner aircraft, what with Airbus’s production backlogs and Boeing’s ongoing certification/delivery down draft, losing tens of billions of dollars in stalled output, most recently grappling with a 32,000 Aerospace Machinist Union assembly line workers’ strike (costing the planemaker $1bn per month).

Autumnal Equipoise.

Otherwise, inflight incidents mount, from Alaska’s door plug to sporadic engine failures and flight crew members (falling ill, even dying en route). That’s not to minimize air turbulence intensified through climate change. At ground level, more ATC close calls and taxi/runway incursions are becoming normalized, via tower controller shortages and airport congestion.

TSA stations are ever whack-a-moling on-person and baggage security risks. Flight attendants wrestle with more and messier onboard unruly disruptions. Misdirected and lost luggage is another sob story entirely. Yet upperside, digital reservation/ticketing, stronger onboard Wi-Fi and seat-screen entertainment take flight—while cleaner, greener engines and fuel will make skies and roadway more environmentally friendly. All told, there are many speed bumps to negotiate through travelwise—two tiers or too many tears notwithstanding—and Vamigré says, bring it on.

But on balance, Autumn travel ’24 is falling colorfully into place, across Vamerica and Vamabroad. Be it in fly/drive mode or beyond—wherever and however we all choose to take leave. (MTC…) 

Summer In The City, Sticks and Sands.

(6/22/24)—What in blazes? What the Flood?! Seems that since the solstice, there’s been hell on wheels, wings and water to pay the world over. As in either we’re sun fried, or slogging along on little web feet.

Nevertheless our traveler goal is chillin’, climate change or no, and the mobility modes are fillin’ like never before. That means splittin’ to the tune of 71m+ US travelers over the upcoming July 4th weekend: this after a record Memorial Day span.

Inflation notwithstanding, the US dollar is strong, travelers’ pockets are flush with dinero, global destinations are welcoming, and petrol prices are easing off peak spikes. So it’s go time, even if it takes spf 50 sunscreen and water wings to make our way.

That’s not to say we aren’t facing weather disruptions, flight delays/cancellations (CanDels), terminal wait lines, overbooking/visitation restrictions, passport or documentation snafus, traffic bottlenecks/detours and the usual touristy scams.

Vamigré may not be the bulletproof cure for these summertime blues, but we will afford some salve, solutions, shields and savvy sidesteps as the sweltering travel season unfolds.

So let’s saddle up, buckle in, strap/slap it on and fly right. For it’s summertime, summertime, sum-sum-summertime. High time to be wise and shine—rain or blue skies, come what may. Sunny-side up!  (MTC…)

Springing In Living Color, With Savior Faire. 

(3/21/24)—Springing into action, travelers are gearing to shed their winter gyves and spring break for the borders. And with all this winter’s slogging and shoveling, it couldn’t arrive at a better time. Alas, freedom can be just another word for what there is to lose.

That is, it now seems for every champagne powder ski-daddle or crystal beachy getaway comes a whiteout avalanche or paradise packing heat. Namely, Sierra slopes remain snowed under with blinding storms still rivering in, while Alpine peaks are found wanting more. Mexico’s charms and splendor have been rendered no-go zones of drug-induced kidnapping and cartel carnage—not to mention pharmacies peddling fentanyl laced pain pills to so-called medical tourists.

Miami Beach playgrounds are flooded with shootings, curfews, street and restaurant/bar closures—with its mayor declaring a state of emergency, basically wishing bonkers spring break festivities away. As Europe is riven with war ravaged and/or death-boat trafficked refugees north to south, visitor caps being imposed, Amsterdam to Venezia. And this isn’t the half of it worldwide.

Some More Things In the Air.

So, where to go, what to do from here? Well the airlines clearly see this as springtime—warmly colorful springtime—cautiously expecting last year’s leisure/bleisure passenger surge to continue through a blue skies 2024, inevitable weather cancellations/delays (CanDels) notwithstanding. Flights are likely to be a bit less crammed and comparatively better scheduled, with ‘early bird’ fare deals in these ‘slower’ months—yet air travel demand outstripping carriers’ ability to fully deliver. Majors’ ‘robust’ profits have been rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, as are those of European flags such as IAG’s Aer Lingus and Iberia (up 173%), although low-cost and ultra low cost carriers are in bargain battles for survival versus predatory majors. Stock prices again carry the day; with new, more efficient aircraft on order—despite delivery delays, spiking fuel costs and labor shortages. Good for them, huh, what’s not to fly, right?

Well, even a Big-Four US line like United Air (UAL) hedges, warning against those very labor shortfalls, particularly in the cockpit and ground workers. Because overworked pilots still agitating across the board, chasing Delta flight crews’ sui generis pay boost as the new normal, flight attendants following their onboard lead. Mid-level (Northeast delay-prone) JetBlue just misses this top-dog cut, what with the Justice Department (and federal courts) axing its merger with low-cost Spirit Airlines. And even as Frontier, Alaska, SWA, Allegiant, etc. rebound—budget Euro carriers like Ryanair dominate, while Flybe and Wizz can be suddenly gone, stranded customers legally blitzing them with ticket refund claims.

Still Treading Sprightly.

Where does that leaves us? From an air safety standpoint—with too little, a little too late, if the FAA’s recent A-SS conference is any indication. Runway close calls and near misses are rampant amid a severe paucity of air traffic controllers and seasoned pilots alike. United, for one scrambles to increase its onboard and ground staff training after the aviation agency questions its preflight safety inspection procedures, particularly at a time of cascading weather CanDels, if not fright flights like UAL Flight 1722’s Hawaiian plunge.

Nevertheless, here we go, facing an airline industry that is squeezing record revenue out of some 6% less capacity that in 2019—fewer flights, meaning fuller flights, meaning escalating fares versus seemingly nonstop passenger demand. 

Therefore how should we react, as in contending with this ‘seats of power’ imbalance, and carriers’ elusive seat and switch? It surely means asserting our flier rights of rebooking compensation, if not full refunds when airlines change their flight schedules, belatedly or arbitrarily so. We could contest or evade ‘junk’ seat preference fees, negotiate carriers’ murky policies on family (together) seating and kids flying solo. Also on the tray table will be cushion-to-arm rest limitations, passenger seat swap meets, even strategizing for certain airlines’ (mainly international) seat ‘upgrade’ auctions.

Even as some carriers (e.g., SWA) strive to ease, expedite and enliven pre/boarding torment, the adventure and misadventures only begin to take flight. Beyond runway intrigues and weather/climate extremes, we must increasingly brace for onboard seat row scraps, carry-on tussles over storage bins, eruptive malcontents and maniacs, secreted guns and other buttery contraband, sneaky vaping vipers, lithium-ion battery fires and all manner of flight attendant abuse.

Still, on the upside, advances in cabin comforts and cleaner, sustainable jets/fuels are top of mind, among many other issues. And this is just about air travel…with finer focus on rails, trails, roadways and seas—as well as widespread hotel, BnB and homestay lodging larceny—to come.

Be sure Vamigré will navigate it all as we spring forward, whatever bars, bans and borders we canny travelers seek to cross the world over. So, shed the snow plows, smell the flowers, and buckle on up once more…(MMTC…) 

Cold-Cocked, Cooler Heads

(12/26/23)—Welcome to the Winter months: Come Arctic blasts, freeze warnings, ice storms/ black ice, whiteout blizzard conditions, blinding fog, roadway spinouts and massive pileups–atmospheric rivers, flash flooding and hurricane force winds; trashing tornado alleys and choking dust bowl devils, cyclones ever on the way.

With it all, airline flight delays, if not total ground stops, cascading cancellations by the thousands— booking snafus, bumping grinds; lengthy layovers, lost luggage and turbulence, tribulations aloft. Although holiday on-time/temper numbers appear vastly improved over the 2022 meltdown thus far.

So still, we go—a record 115.2m will travel domestically over 50 miles from home through the 10-day US  holiday week, some 2.2% over 2022—exceeded only in 2019. TSA agents have already been scanning some 2.8m bags per day, 10% more than last year. Taking to the roads are at least 1.4m travelers, somewhat driven by average gasoline prices below $3 ppg, along with the proliferation of hybrid and electric vehicles.

And we’re just getting started, with the new year right around the bend: 2024 galore, all aboard and abroad… (MMTC…)

A Hoverview, (Fall, 2023)…

So Much Fallderall.

(9/21/23)—Now that vamateur hour is over, the biggest summer travel/tourism season ever has turned a calendar page, and fallen by the wayside out of overheated excesses and sheer exhaustion. 

So in the wake of teeming airports, jammed highways, clotted destinations, full-house lodging, overrun parklands both domestic and abroad—what on earth is left behind?

Hassles In The Air.

Surely this was a ‘revenge summer’ of climatological extremes: oppressive heat domes the world over; unprecedented rainstorms, flooding lower/eastern US to Libya; massive earthquake tragedy in Morocco; smoky Canadian skies, hellfire disasters in Greece and Lahaina—a luxury cruise ship getting stuck in muddy Greenland snowmelt. In all, plenty to escape from, hazy clarity about how and where to go. Still, travel we all did, in record numbers—whether by sky, rail and roadway (via fossil fuel and/or EV).

T/Ts crushed airports, curbside to jetways, lined restive and jet spent along concourses—getting clamorous, if not outright belligerent at backed-up boarding gates. Paperless vs. digital reservations/ticketing entangled passage as much as easing it. An increase in international travel issued a slew of passport snafus. While better staffed TSA checkpoints moved more smoothly than a year ago, reports of agent rancor and pilfering of travelers’ carry-ons led to increased tensions at the scanners and security belts—baggage claim carousels conveying little better.

Beyond that, the FAA still struggled with ATC tower shortages as tarmac wingtip clips and taxi/runway ‘close calls’ piled up by the airport and day. Carriers themselves barely weathered their typical share of summer delays and cancellations amid onrushing consumer demand. Engine problems, air turbulence—much less bird, lightening or laser strikes—and various technical/computer glitches forced untimely ground stops, inflight turnarounds and hard, white-knuckle landings. Moreover, labor problems (i.e., strike threats) among cockpit crews, flight attendants and maintenance workers loomed all summer, coupled with scheduling squeezes, allegedly due to delivery delays on new, greener Boeing and Airbus aircraft.

But none of this throttled airlines’ fare climbs and stowaway service/junk fees. Which further aggravated passengers already testy over tiresome ‘CanDels’, over cramped seating in crowded cabins—hence the creeping outbreaks of unruly, threatening onboard incidents, and emergency diversions to nearby airports and awaiting security authorities.

Trashy Talk and Walk.

Such rudeness and ill-behavior could also be found on similarly chockablock railways, motorcoaches and cruise lines (as in drunken overboards), let alone destinations themselves. European hotspots like Venice and Amsterdam clamped down on overtrod areas while establishing daily visitor quotas—what with havoc bingeing, selfie mania and treasure desecration running amok.

The trashing of parks and campsites also triggered reservation quotas and even some crowd controls, particularly in US gems from Acadia to Yosemite and Yellowstone. No less troublesome was the mudder of all Burners in Black Rock Desert, Nevada—and the messy rainstormed debris that the Burning Man clan left in that lake bed’s playa over Labor Day weekend.

A Fallback Re-Set.

But that was then, and this is now. Summer’s vamateur hour is behind us, with a truly favorable traveler season in the air. Time to exhale, exalt in the prospect of a relatively cooler, roomier, more reasonable and welcoming world over the autumnal months ahead. So let’s get out there, shrewdly get on with it again…leaving those overheated travails and tourist traps well behind. Call it a Vamosure cure for the summertime blues, not to mention  better revenge. (MTC…)

Summerizing ’23: ‘Scapes and Scrapes.

(6/21/23)—Now Boarding, Gate D…lays? Welcome to the summertime rush and terminal crush…

Indeed, it looks like a stellar travel season ahead, soaring well above pre-pandemic levels. Travelers and the T/T industry alike are even keener than last year to fully break free of the COVIDian shackles despite inflation pressures—tighter personal finances to vendors’ bottom lines. Credit widespread home/remote working flexibility, not to mention a rapidly growing demographic of younger, healthier retirees.

The airlines clearly foresee a blue-sky aestival season, vowing to avoid the chaos and meltdowns of 2022, from high-flying majors to low-fare discounters, domestic and international. Airports have continued modernizing in an effort to meet anticipated terminal and concourse/gate surges and boarding line-to-baggage claim snafus—but we’ll wait and see on that. In any event, travel/tourism advertising and other cross-media promotion proliferate in the face of what shapes up to be a choosier consumer ‘buyer’s’ market.

Summer Squeeze.

Nevertheless, travel dreams and demand are increasingly meeting budget limitations. Air fares rise unabated amid decreasing flight options and fleet capacity. This, as carriers tighten booking restrictions and slip in ‘ancillary income’ fees: flight changes and seat assignments to checked baggage beyond carry-ons. Thus the Biden Administration rails against ‘junk’ fees, even while Congress considers rolling back rules on ‘all-in ticketing’, i.e., full total cost disclosure when airlines advertise their fares.

Problematic as well are air travel issues like carriers shrinking schedules, delaying and cutting flights without due notice, and stiffing passengers on ticket rebooking or timely refund recovery, despite Congressional jawboning. From a safety standpoint, the ongoing alarm and white-knuckle foreboding of runway/taxiway ‘close call’/’near miss’ incursions replay almost weekly. To a dearth of qualified air traffic controllers add the severe shortage of airline pilots, let alone strike action threats by those who are currently crewing cockpits, however overworked or less experienced they may be. Little wonder the FAA considers loosening pilot training rules to add speedier simulator sessions in flight instruction programs, so as to (safely?) ‘goose’ the pipeline.

Driveby Departures, Digressions.

With per-gallon gasoline prices relatively easing from last summer’s highs (cheaper in the heartland and south than on the coasts), more travelers are likely to hit the roads (50 miles+ from home) than in ’22. Be it in autos, SUVs, tricked-out vans or full-boat motor coaches, vehicular traffic will surely be clogging arteries to national/local parks, hideaway/retreats, family bashes, and fetching destinations far and wide—if not more wisely seeking out escape routes less traveled at every turn. Accordingly, hotel/motel and short-term/vacation home rental demand and reservations ‘abode’ well throughout the summer, despite slyly tacking on unwelcome fees—AirBnB (civic) scrutiny and notorious peep shows aside.

EV travel will be expanding dramatically as electric-powered vehicles increase their range and reliability, namely easing range-anxiety under challenging climatic conditions. Such electrifying growth depends upon the roll-out of strategic, convenient charging stations and networks—federally subsidized and/or Tesla/Detroit facilitated—along the way. Further complicating these technical advances are EV app lapses, software/security bugs and the safety concern over heavy, incendiary batteries, let alone self-driving vehicles. But there is no turning back now. From economic, environmental standpoints, the post-petrol future is already hitting on-ramps, gas pains slowly fading, headed for the rearview mirror or at least to concurrent lanes—not unlike Lyft’s rideshare market chances against its better entrenched Uber rival.

Global Swarming.

More widely, Europe’s travel/tourism (high) season is well underway, what with international travel strongly rebounding overall—water-worn Venice, for one, seeing variegated green early on. Same time, disturbing news and issues arise, from Bavarian selfie barriers to the brutal murder of a recent University of Illinois graduate and attack on her companion near the Marienbrucke Bridge overlooking Germany’s breathtaking Neuschwanstein Castle. Air India passengers recently found themselves waylayed in Russia, shortly after India suffered one of the worst train wrecks (280 perished) in its troubled railroad history.

Then two visitors die mysteriously in a beachy Baja retreat, as hurricane season again threatens the Caribbean and sweltering Gulf Coast. The latest onboard unruly dufus disrupts a Paris-Detroit flight twice, forcing an emergency diversion to Newfoundland, just as Air New Zealand begins weighing passengers before boarding to assess carry-on/contraband excesses. Meanwhile cruise passengers keep getting sickened, bumped and bruised worldwide, as other waterway travelers—from overturned New York cave tourists to the Greek migrant tragedy to the Titanic submersible disappearance—suffer their gravely sinking fates.

At the same time, safety and crime wise, there’s no avoiding the raging, whack-a-mole epidemic of gun violence, some 300+ US deaths in ’23 thus far, including a wildfire shoot-out at the Denver Nuggets’ recent NBA championship celebration. All told, these and so many other concerns will be in Vamigre’s sightlines as the summer months sizzle and fizzle forward.

Seeking Travana.

Brighter side, high-tech developments will also stream across our screens all summer long, not least paperless digital booking/boarding, flying taxis and the IT meltdowns lately plaguing carriers like Spirit and Southwest. Airline onboard advances like multi-cabin configurations and double-decker seating will also warrant further and future consideration when it comes to potential passenger safety and comfort, and so on…

In summery summation, as we travelers freebase off worldwide, Vamigré will be critically scratching the fees and flees, striving to minimize the scams and egregiously sacrificial clams—via some cool reckoning and hot, timely tips (Summertime Do’s) as aestival ’23 unfolds. (MTC…)

Springing Into Action, and Reaction.

(3/22/23)—Whether it’s tummy tucks or flyin’ f–ks, travelers are shedding their pandemic winter gyves and spring breaking for the borders. And with all this winter’s slogging and shoveling, it couldn’t arrive at a better time. Alas, freedom can be just another word for what there is to lose.

That is, it now seems for every champagne powder ski-daddle or crystal beachy getaway comes a whiteout avalanche or paradise packing heat. Namely, Sierra slopes remain snowed under with blinding storms still rivering in, while Alpine peaks are found wanting more. Mexico’s charms and splendor have been rendered no-go zones of drug-induced kidnapping and cartel carnage—not to mention pharmacies peddling fentanyl laced pain pills to so-called medical tourists.

Miami Beach playgrounds are flooded with shootings, curfews, street and restaurant/bar closures—with its mayor declaring a state of emergency, all but wishing the bonkers spring break festivities away. As Europe is riven with war ravaged and/or death-boat trafficked refugees north to south, visitor caps being imposed, Amsterdam to Venezia. And this isn’t the half of it worldwide.

Mox Nix: Some Things In the Air.

So, where to go, what to do from here? Well the airlines clearly see this as springtime, widely expecting last year’s post-COVID leisure/bleisure passenger surge to continue into a blue skies 2024, inevitable weather cancellations/delays (CanDels) notwithstanding. Flights are crammed and comparatively better scheduled, even in these ‘slower’ months—yet air travel demand outstripping carriers’ ability to fully deliver. Majors’ ‘robust’ profits are quickly rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, as are those of European flags such as IAG’s Aer Lingus and Iberia (up 173%), though Asia lags. Stock prices again carry the day; with new, more efficient aircraft on order—despite spiking fuel costs and labor shortages. Good for them, huh, what’s not to fly, right?

Well, even a Big-Four US line like United Air (UAL) hedges, warning against those very labor shortfalls, particularly in the cockpit. Because overworked pilots are agitating across the board, chasing Delta flight crews’ bar and hackles raising pay boost as the new normal, flight attendants following their onboard lead. Mid-level (Northeast delay-prone) JetBlue just misses this top-dog cut, what with the Justice Department challenging its merger with low-cost Spirit Airlines. And even as Frontier, Alaska, SWA, Allegiant, etc. rebound—budget Euro carriers Flybe and Wizz are suddenly gone, stranded customers legally blitzing them with ticket refund claims.

Vamifications: Treading Sprightly.

Where does that leaves us? From an air safety standpoint—with too little, a little too late, if the FAA’s recent A-SS conference is any indication. Runway close calls and near misses are rampant amid a severe paucity of air traffic controllers and seasoned pilots alike. United, for one scrambles to increase its onboard and ground staff training after the aviation agency questions its preflight safety inspection procedures, particularly at a time of cascading weather CanDels, if not fright flights like UAL Flight 1722’s Hawaiian plunge.

Nevertheless, here we go, facing an airline industry that is squeezing record revenue (up nearly 25% over 2022) out of some 6% less capacity that in 2019—fewer flights, meaning fuller flights, meaning escalating fares versus seemingly nonstop passenger demand.

Therefore how should we react, as in contending with this ‘seats of power’ imbalance, and carriers’ elusive seat and switch? It surely means asserting our flier rights of rebooking compensation, if not full refunds when airlines change their flight schedules, belatedly or arbitrarily so. We could contest or evade junk seat preference fees, negotiate carriers’ murky policies on family (together) seating and kids flying solo. Also on the tray table would be cushion-to-arm rest limitations, crippling legroom, weak media, passenger seat swap meets, even strategizing for certain airlines’ (mainly international) seat ‘upgrade’ auctions.

Even as some carriers (e.g., SWA) strive to ease, expedite and enliven pre/boarding torment, the adventure and misadventures only begin to take flight. Beyond runway intrigues and weather/climate extremes, we must increasingly brace for onboard seat-row scraps, carry-on tussles over storage bins, eruptive malcontents and maniacs, secreted guns and other buttery contraband; sneaky vaping vipers, lithium-ion battery fires and all manner of flight attendant abuse.

Still, on the upside, advances in cabin comforts and cleaner, sustainable jets/fuels are top of mind, among many other issues. And this is just about air travel…with finer focus on rails, trails, roadways and seas—as well as hotel, BnB and homestay lodging larceny—to come.

Be sure Vamigré will navigate it all as we spring forward in the months ahead, whatever bars, bans and borders we canny travelers seek to cross the world over. So, shed the snow blowers, smell the flowers, and buckle on up…(MMTC…) 

Winter ’22-’23: Snowballing Chills and Thrills.

(12/27/22)—Scattering and shivering through the holidays, we have been weathering a ‘bomb cyclone’ of chaotic air terminal crowd swarms and rapidly intensifying flash freeze blizzards—with drive-by traffic snarls and icy road closures only a highway away.

The heavy snowfall and treacherously frigid temperatures have seen already leaner airlines trigger rippling flight cancellations/ delays in key hubs, disrupting holiday travel throughout the nation’s system (3k+ scrubs, 2,400+ delays per day) since 12/21—by today up to 20k cancellations, with tens of thousands+ of delays…while major carriers have since posted robust Q4 earnings.

Brrrrr, nevertheless, over 112m travelers have scattered at least 50 miles into the blustery, blinding winds. Air travel has been rising 14%, nearing pre-pandemic levels, higher fares or no. More than 100m Americans taking to the roads between between December 23 and January 2, as gas prices register a minuscule decline. Inflation notwithstanding, travel demand remains robust, what with more people flexibly and/or remotely workingaround; more retirees mobilizing and spending—their trips increasing and lengthening globally—like never before. Little wonder major carriers are bullish on revenue outlooks, some (troubled SWA) even doling out dividends.

Cold, Hard Fleece.

Still, carriers’ flight to profitability and fleet tightening leave little margin for operational error or elasticity when they were already running at 95% cabin capacity before the holiday rush even began. And it leaves us holding the bags, if only in terms of alternatives once CanDels start lighting up airport departure boards days before Christmas—as 14k did during the same holiday period in 2021. Indeed, with so little ‘give’ left in the system, is flight change good…and gone? And what about eligibility for proper change fee and fare difference waivers? Meantime must we just standby or camp in overnight terminal ’shelters’?

Again, the airlines blame jet fuel costs, pilot/staff shortages and production gaps or supply chain snafus slowing delivery of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. There has been some movement in Boeing’s case however, since the FAA has just signed off on certification of 737MAX 7 and MAX 10 iterations. Now whether Congressional and Aviation Agency expediency on basically greenlighting the new models’ cockpit alert systems (albeit amid Boeing’s lobbying and market demand pressures) is ultimately wise on air safety grounds remains to be seen.

Bipolar Vortex.

No less problematic in winter months ahead will be an array of red flags and hazards. Take the head- rattling inflight turbulence of a recent United Airlines flight 128 bound for Houston from Rio de Janeiro, five passengers hospitalized upon landing; let alone Hawaiian Air’s Phoenix-Honolulu flight HA35, an Airbus A330-200 that hit several seconds of ‘free-falling’ panic—many of 288 passengers thrown from their seats, 36 injured, 20 sent to Honolulu emergency rooms. Then there are the onboard airheads and maniacs who breach cabin civility, if not threaten fellow passengers, flight attendants and the aircraft itself.

On terra infirma, we continue to witness Machu Picchu political traps, tourists stranded and starving for days until helicoptered out. Random gun violence erupts anywhere, any time—to where the TSA reports record packed-weapon findings at airport checkpoints, 88% of the guns loaded. Add in cruiseline captivity, repressive Bali’s prickly Indonesian sex laws and the terrifying echoes of Lockerbie and MH-17—just to name a few.

Scheming Out the Squeeze.

Snowballing forward, we face a winterland of rising rate/prices and sinking, shrinking conditions. Airfares show little sign of easing, even after the holiday season rush, given major carrier aims to cut/end air service to numerous medium and smaller cities. Would that regional and new start-up airlines may eventually fly in to fill the creeping voids, with an Amtrak and motorcoach boost to boot.

Moreover, when the price/fare inflation bug even spreads to nominally ‘budget’ carriers such as Allegiant, Frontier and Spirit, let alone their amoebically onerous fees, we face a vast, frosty wonderland of whens, where, and why/hows. Yet note emerging European-based budget carriers as FlyAtlantic, French Bee, Condor and Play as promising new models of competitive air travel savings and service.

So whether bound for Snowbird or Barbados, St. Moritz or Mykonos, VamoScheming might comprise longer trips and disperse destinations worldwide, flexing flights or stays, and more loose and leisurely workarounds. Think shrewd, optimally fail-safe booking (early and often)–with a keen eye toward low-fare vs. flash fee come-ons, CanDel compensatory change-charge waiving, fee reduction and/or vouchers, what with rebooking being a day-to-day crapshoot.

Check flight status before hitting the airport, get free airline text alerts and, if cancelled/significantly delayed, demand a ticket refund or finagle paid hotel stays, instead of being floored with terminal pajama parties. Prepare to play seat assignment and legroom bingo, from booking to boarding, packing lighter and tighter, eventually carrying on with minimal overhead friction or spot overage penalties.

And considering a record epidemic of lost passenger baggage in 2022 (1.4m+ claims), much less Allegiant Air neglecting to load cargo bays at all on an otherwise packed Washington State-to-California flight, best to suitably minimize our checked exposure to such rampant snaggage and bag lag. Otherwise, there’s always gaming and gambling with the fine print of travel insurance policies.

Shifting Latitudes and Attitudes.

In any case, plowing ahead, Vamigré will be digging into other items and issues, the likes of: Redesigned (thinner) cabin seating/pitch restrictions and ‘added legroom’ versus inflight comfort and safety. Cleaner, greener sustainable aviation fuel vs. current carbon offsets. Sprawling, fading plastic theme parks vs. sacred indigenous lands.

We’ll track onboard 5G cel phone usage through lower-power reserved frequency bands vs. flight control system/altitude measurement interference; faster, freer Wi-Fi throughout jetliner cabins. Not to  mention radical aircraft design, advanced air mobility/flying taxis and hands-free advanced driver assist vehicle transport vs. today’s rideshares or free metro transit buses. 

Needless to say, we’ll have our thermo-gloved hands full this season, mitts firmly at 10 and 2—steering us through a winter of chillier going, fretful flying and dicey driving in months ahead, well into a thrill-filled, gleeful 2023.  So let’s bundle up, buckle up and snowball ahead—or bail to warmer climes, should a snowball’s chance arise. (MTC…)

Falling Into Off-Season Sangfroid and re-Seasoning.

(9/19/22)—After such a frantic, stir-fried summer ‘high season’, things may seem a bit off by now.

Post Labor Day, it’s heretofore been called travel’s ‘off-season’: off peak, off schedule, off track, off road, off the heat-beaten path. But Vamigre says so much the better—because off we go now into the milder, truer yonder, taking freer, easier leave, rustling with the dropping autumn leaves—putting summer vacation chaos and cacophony well behind us.

Vamateur Hour Begone.

Which means gone in autumnal days ahead are the traffic-clotting 12m+ Labor Day weekend traveler/tourist scrum, the 22% jump in three-day holiday bookings over 2021, the 19% bump in hotel reservations, 25% rise in vacation home stays—the overall stifling congestion in ‘popular’ destinations and resorts.

We say off with the air travel tribulations stemming from poor operational planning, labor/staffing and equipment shortages—carriers largely mis-meeting and mistreating surging summer travel demand. Nevertheless, domestic US airlines plan to pare fall capacity even further so as to counter, to spreadsheet paper over their mounting cancellations and delays: likely here to stay anyway.

More specifically, American Air says it will trim its flights 2% in September and October, “proactive adjustments” that may increase to 16% of its fleet during November. United and JetBlue are also cutting back on their fall schedules as of now—most all carriers citing FAA understaffing in air traffic control towers, as well as foul/stormy weather nationwide, for their impaired performance.

Europe fares little better, with British Air grounding flights by the tens of thousands, Deutsch Lufthansa by the thousands, similar tough shedding by Air France-KLM and discounter Wizz Air. Moreover, airport passenger restrictions will continue at Heathrow, Frankfurt and Amsterdam Schipol well into the fall—wait times lengthening all around.

Let Bygones Be Long Gone.

But that’s not the half (off) of it. For while airline scheduling and capacity levels are falling, so are the summer-long traveler/tourism queues and crush for modes and destinations—for events, lodging, dining and other bids ‘n’ bookings as to sundry T/T services—even gasoline prices at the pump. All are long overdue, being fundamentally due to sector fears of a critical dip in ‘off-season’ travel demand.

Hence the customary discount packages, fare sales and various two-fer come-ons to stem the anticipated off-season’s ebb of leisure and business travel alike. Well, we say bring it on, remaining mindful that while such lures may be dropped upon us from every angle, the sharks will still be biting.

Yet therein opens our autumn window: our higher season time to flex our muscles in the travel marketplace, spread our worldly wings. This ‘off season’ affords us the breathing room to better move and maneuver, near and far—to run and roam on the ramps, rails and roads. Actively preparing for and pursuing singular experiences and adventures, slowing down, stretching out, welcoming uniquely spellbinding or quieter spells, if not gearing up for global challenges galore.

Vacation from Inflation?

That is, we’re leaving summer’s off-putting heat domes, crippling labor strife and self-destructive selfiacs behind. Shrewdly turning some corners, cutting some others; blanking out the sweats and strains, filling in other blanks, come what may. Let’s dodge the barriers and detours, wheel and seal some deals; rig righteous digs, whittle up choice vittles, wheedle some freebies, scram the scams, score more lore and yore than ever before. After all, with the US dollar now crushing Yen and Euros on the currency exchanges, it’s the better time in decades to take a vacation from domestic inflation—albeit once past higher international airfares.

In essence, we’ll be opening the autumn window ever wider, to see where this new ‘off re-season’ leads us, from astutely negotiating change fees and missing baggage safaris to using consumer ‘cleverage’ to stack our trips. Along the way, we’ll be siftin’ and griftin’ by wits and grit—refusing to take the fall for pervasive tourism industry shortcomings.

Always remembering that it’s our world this bright, bountiful autumn, and they are only serving us. So let’s do this, shall we?  Let’s go get off on it all—Bien viajes, über alles…but you get the idea.  (MMTC…)

Summer, 2022: Packing Sunscreen vs. Packin’ Heat.

(7/4/22)—Another glorious holiday weekend, or another long horriday ordeal weakend via stormy weather, gaseous gouging and delay/cancelled terminal swarms? Juneteenth could have gone either way, and holiday travel is doing the ‘de/can boogey’ already over the Fourth…

Divining the Travel ‘Din and Dang’.

(7/14/22)—Yin and yang aside, here we’re talking about the din of mobility and dang of morass amid summer travel, double-deuce—the sheer wonders vs. storms und drang of venturing forth today…

As in, a funny thing is happening on our nimble way to paradise: NIMBY paradisians are fighting mad and back. Funny wah-waaah or funny hah-hah? It depends on where we’re GPSy off to, if not where we currently care to stand. For while skies are threatening, roadblocks emerge at every turn, cruise lines take on water and everything else seems to be going off the rails these days, we nevertheless remain steadfastly determined to VamosOn.  Cases in point/counterpoint:

Travel vs. Travails.

Really, we’re all still heading out, just looking for a primo break from pandemic hibernation of late (nearly 50m Americans alone over 7/4)—if only so many speed bumps, squalls and bollards weren’t whack-a-moly in our way. Among the latest developments or impediments, let us count those ways…

Flight Made vs. Flightmare.

We surely hope to fly like the wind, but keep encountering stifling blowback—and being treated like so many carrier pigeons. ‘Big Air’s’ friendly skies seem to love us so much they are squeezing the life and joy out of us, from booking to pre-boarding lounges to onboard seating. Still, we choose to storm the gates, by the millions on any given travel day.

For example, nearly 3,000 US flights were cancelled over Juneteenth weekend, more than 25,000 delayed, with European air terminals just as chaotic and overcrowded as international travel rebounds, with labor scarcity and strikes breaking out across the Continent. In all, we see frustrating, milling meet grinders of the worst kind, ostensibly due to pilot/crew and staffing shortages (even in ATC facilities), much less fluky and funky weather. But just as much because airlines (American to Ryanair and SWA) are paring back their schedules and capacity by 5% to 15%+  going forward, boosting fares upwards of 45% over 2019, offering fewer nonstop flights in the process as they scheme out how to make more with less, cashing in on today’s demand/supply imbalances. To the point where Delta is wheedling ticket holders (via fee cuts) to change flight days/times, and reportedly bribing booked lower-fare passengers to relinquish their seats for more profitable resale.

Nevertheless, legacy carriers such as Delta and United heavily advertise their dedication to serving travelers during this post-pandemic recovery surge and offer apologies for can/delays, claiming to aggressively hire pilots and recruit staffers in a tight labor market—this, after drastically jettisoning employees during the severest COVID sieges. While American Air is even luring cockpit crews from regional airlines (40% of all domestic flights), and grooming other regional pilots with higher pay. Yet pilots’ unions counter that the ‘cockpit shortage’, projected to last some five years, is a self-inflicted ruse that airlines are now using to stretch and overwork flight crews, justifying training cuts and safety requirements in the service of boosting profit margins. Unsurprisingly, scores of Delta pilots are now walking airport picket lines as July 4^th arrives, demanding better pay and scheduling.

Same time, Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg pledges closer scrutiny of the air travel downdrafts “…to make sure that the airlines are delivering” over the July 4^th weekend and beyond (three thousand more holiday cancellations by the day so far). In any case, we travelers are further shafted by the prospect that more than 30 small-to-medium US cities are losing airline service altogether as carriers continue with their scheduling cut and squeeze plays. Little wonder the mounting cancellations, co-terminal biases, seating crapshoots and seemingly endless waits can spillover into eventual cabin fever and onboard misbehavior. Now seatbelts securely fastened, tray tables upright—peanuts anyone? (MTC…)

COVID vs. Novid.

Who needs shots and masks, when you can just deny or death wish the pandemic away? Even if sufficiently VAXxed and boosted, many travelers who continue to mask up feel uncomfortable and unsafe by being confined in a plane cabin for hours with other passengers, masked and unmasked, who may be carrying/transmitting the virus. Then they arrive at popular places/events that also turn out to be coronaviral hot spots, from Miami to Hawaii, let alone international destinations worldwide. Because of or despite shifting local COVID-related restrictions regarding vaccinations, testing and quarantines, confusion if not chaos ensues. And resulting inbound/outbound barriers remain, even now that the Biden administration has removed US entry hurdles that posed the threat of being stuck overseas waiting out a negative test outcome. Still, boost your boosters as you go, until super pan-vaccines come along?

Stay vs. Nay.

How can we ream you when you won’t go away? With the visitor din comes the dang NIMBY-pambies in desirable destinations increasingly looking to shut local doors. Who says who stays or goes, and for how long?  Townies vs. wannabees, porchers vs. poachers,: take Northern California (who wouldn’t?). Statewide regulations vary as to short-term rental restrictions, but more and more prime destination regions and municipalities, long travel/tourism dependent, are now pulling their welcome mats out from under eager high season visitors/vacationers.

Citing 3-D’s: housing stock decimation, property destruction and residential/community diminution, local short-term opponents are actively pushing through mainly 45-day moratoriums on under 30-day rentals in coastal Marin and Sonoma County, the Napa-Sonoma wine country, on up to the Sierra Mountains and Lake Tahoe.

Their principal culprit/target: Crowd swarming online booking sites like HomeAway, VRBO and monster AirBnB, which make it so quick and easy to hook trippers up with the roughly 10% of a destination’s property owners who welcome the transitory income, come what may. Local tax revenue considerations enter in from a permitting and pothole perspective; then there are the wanton party/melee incidents (now AirBnBanned), not to mention privacy/security issues surrounding these P-to-P arrangements—as in smile for the red dot and flower pot camera. Rest assured Vamigré won’t sleep on any of it as this NIMBY door-slamming discord spreads near and far. Hence the indie mo/hotel, RVantages—so book smartly and stay the course. (MTC…)

Climb It vs. Climate.

We’re heading for the hills, parking some off-road assets, even as major national parklands—from the Adirondacks to Yosemite—are overrun with precious reservations and querulous queues. Taking climate change to 100 year extremes, Yellowstone has been closed due to historic rainfall/snowmelt flooding, the north (Montana) portion—bridges and other infrastructure nearly washing away, with mud and rockslides closing roads. The oldest US national park, which draws some 4 million visitors per year, partially reopened within days (save for the north entrance), but the damage to local t/t attractions and businesses had been done, some of it existential. As reduced crowds that haven’t headed for Sawtooth or the Tetons re-queue for Yosemite (since fire struck itself), details will come regarding sediment from this environmental cataclysm, and reports of Yellowstone bison attacks on visitors getting too close for comfort.

Otherwise, how goes it in the sweltering heat waves, under heat domes stalling over vast regions worldwide? Better to tropical storm the beaches, sunscreening at gated clubs, building sand castles in white-sand splendor, or body surfing with the sharks, riding rip-tide currents, sneaker waves and other nasty undertow. Whatever, take a dive or hike, whydon’tcha?

Jets vs. Nyets.

Holy jetway, how dare we take to the skies when, contrails to the contrary, we’re flying on a cushy bedwet of carbon/CO2 emissions? Homies vs. roamers: So say the lofty NIMBY-pambies who are admonishing travelers to go local, on regional road trips at most, leaving minimal footprints if you must bloody gallivant at all—many of whom already live in and lay hold onto destinations we mere mobile earthlings may wish to visit. Just don’t be gettin’ within sniffin’ distance of the ozone layer…(MTC…)

Wail vs. Rail.

Going the slower, more casual and grounded route, really seeing rather than overflying the world sounds dreamy yet becomes a bit more problematic, given the derailing immediacy of Britain’s nationwide rail strike. But even that crippling work stoppage gets sidetracked by news of a massive AMTRAK train wreck outside Mendon, Missouri on June 27. The system’s fabled Southwest Chief bound for Chicago from Los Angeles comfortably at 87 m.p.h. collided with a dump truck at a rural crossing—killing three passengers plus the truck driver, injuring over 50.

Two locomotives and eight coupled double-deck rail cars overturned, some 243 trapped passengers and crew of twelve climbing, crawling out broken windows and doors into remote farmland. Issue number one here is that the crossing was uncontrolled, with no signals, mechanized gates nor warning lights along such a mainline long-haul freight and AMTRAK stretch. There is at least one crossing per mile or so of railroad track nationwide, about 130,000 of these ‘passive’ crossings in the country’s rail network that could pose such hazards.

The Mendon accident occurred a day after another AMTRAK train hit a vehicle in Northern California, killing three, and still another collided with a passenger vehicle near Birmingham, Alabama, killing its driver. The NTSB has arrived in Mendon to investigate that crash, while the Department of Transportation says it will also examine the broader issues of AMTRAK/crossing safety, particularly the costs of fully installing adequate crossing control throughout the US rail system. No stoppin’ ’em, so look both ways…all aboard? (MTC…)

Gas vs. HyLectric.

See, we just want to hit the road, but why not just charge forward and pass the gas while we’re at it? At these ppgs ($4.50-$5 nationwide average)—plus state-by-state gas taxes with little relief in sight, why remain hostage to the fossil tomfuelery? Why continue getting hosed by fungible oil markets, the crude boom and bust production syndrome, eternal refinery rigamarole and profit-guzzling petroleum/ industrial complex? When even a modest token of succor like the Biden administration’s gasoline tax holiday (federal and state) for the summer driving season was axed by a Congress fearful of Big Oil pricing pressures and infrastructure concerns (i.e., Highway Trust Funding). Meanwhile gas pumps ka-ching away, our madcap lowest ppg chase getting bogged down in online misdirection and ‘buddy system’ GPS data-tracking abuses—this, while ‘Big Auto’ plays safety recall roulette with our very rides.

In any event, why not plug into ‘hylectric’ (hybrid or battery electric) alternatives, be they Volt or Prius on up to Tesla and such—just to name a few? You know, cut away the carbon carbuncle, middle finger the filthy pump; problem is, clean energy power supplies will only get us so far. With some 300-mile ranges, fully electric vehicle road trips can be a real adventure, primarily due to the current lack of adequately networked EV charging stations. In the western US alone, 50 miles now separate gas stations, much less charging facilities. Moreover, even once reached, charges can range from 30 minutes (fast) to three hours—no quick pit stop here, but a fair amount quieter one, to be sure.

Nevertheless, the Biden administration has set a goal of 50% of all vehicles sold to be zero-emission EV (presently 4.6% of new purchases) plus a network of 500,000 charging stations by 2030. In the meantime, it calls for fast (DirectCurrent) electric charging stations every 50 miles along interstates, within one mile of the highway exits—at least according to Transportation Secretary Buttigieg—to be funded through federal (as well as state) infrastructure spending on alternative fuels roadways, allotted in 2015 Congressional legislation.

One hurdle: Truck stops and gas stations resist Biden’s intention to place charging stations in state/ federal rest areas, citing Congressional action to avoid competition with such commercial interests decades ago. We’ll see what zips in or gets zapped from here… (MTC…)

Crime vs. Calm.

Sure, we’re drawn to wilder side, the colorful edges. Just try to sidestep danger zones, however, when crime and punishment, bad backcountry acts or urban atrocities are everywhere to be seen. With gang-to-random violence exploding, property theft/damage unsteadily rising, and police departments stretched tissue thin, a good measure of rigorously gauged crime rates, track records and territorial trends per destinations from a travel safety/security standpoint must remain top of mind.  In other words, watch your step and skip the dogpiles. (MTC…)

Guns vs. None.

Sure as shootin’, locked and loaded, open-carry, firearm-friendly states and locales continue to butter us up with not-to-worry, y’all come see us now hear invites, NRAdiating homespun warmth and welcome wagons, while the guns that ‘don’t kill people’ keep mowing random innocents down. Since US gun homocides are at the highest level in a quarter century coast to coast and beyond (now, Highland Park to Copenhagen), with over 300 US mass shootings in 2022 thus far, travelers need to be realistic as to the laws and disorder, the red-flagging risks we carry along wherever we may care/plan to venture. So get packin’ like your lives depended on it, with just the right proper Vammo—metaphorically speaking, of course. (MTC…)

Life vs. Knife.

Yeah, livin’ the life…or the trials and tribulations of maybe not…especially in wake of immigration policy set-tos, drug/people trafficking and Supremos’ Roe v Wade strikedown: such are the Vamoschisms tearing through today’s global fabric. What impact they may have on our travel intentions and itineraries will increasingly be a Vamigré domain. When in doubt, split the differences. (MMTC…)

Alphabet Soup vs. Alpha-Turf Stew.

FTC versus CDC, FAA versus NTSB, FCC versus DOT: How can we seek government support and redress when federal agencies are so busy feuding and dressing one another down? Nevertheless the Department of Transportation is pressuring airlines for higher staffing levels into a July 4^th holiday weekend that is promising to see a record number of US travelers (48m/42m of us driving, up 1.5% from 2021 yet) on the move. Now we will surely see about that…

Following vs. Flipping the T/T Script.

So problems aplenty, issues galore: given this much din and more, what’s the big idea? Tracking travel’s trials and triumphs, that’s what—keen eyes peeled, ever on the lookout for what’s good for what travails us—digging, dancing and dodging along, resolutely overflying the draggards—that’s the route Vamigré will be taking, funnin’ and sunnin’, chillin’ and thrillin’—so much trailblazing summertime talespin, all dang summer long. Surf’s up… (MMTC…) 

Spring, 2022: Blooming Beyond the Bombs.

(3/22/22)—What amounts to a tragic ‘springtime for Putler’ is wreaking mayhem and atrocity after atrocity upon Ukraine—indiscriminate destruction: cities to hinterlands, military to innocent civilians. A despicable play by any standard, the barbaric Russian invasion further threatens to spread across already Ukrainian refugee-stressed Eastern Europe (now 6.5+ million, 10 million on the move overall), and disrupt the nervous Continent as a whole in the weeks and months ahead.

So with the human/inhumane catastrophe roiling on, how must travelers factor in the wartime footing, vast displacement, no-fly route diversions, sporadic flow of battle-to-humanitarian volunteers and heinous cultural/ architectural desecration? That is, should Europe even spring up in our destination crosshairs, given the extent of all this grievous wreckage and disruption?

Going Around, Not Aground.

Nevertheless, early forecasts have 2022 being a jailbreak travel year: cabin fevered, Zoomed out, overstreaming masses once again taking to the air, setting sail, hitting the open road—in all, ready-to-rip demand for travel near and far, just like it’s 2019, except it’s not.

Sure, we seem eager to shed the winter doldrums, half-stepping into some sort of new pandemic-to- endemic normal with Omicron on the run. Nations and destinations are reopening, eager to please; testing and quarantine mandates/restrictions are easing to sine qua non calls for personal responsibility. Vaccination rates top 70%—booster shots slowly but surely rising in most of the perennially visited lands.

Still, the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) maintains its federal masking requirement on planes, trains, buses, all public transport (at least until April 18)—with nearly 2,700 mask violation warnings and $650,000 in fines mounting during the COVIDemic thus far. Globally, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continues to list a vast swath of destinations (134) in its Level 4 ‘Very Hi-Risk’ category (i.e.,VAX-up) Covid-19 advisories. While medical researchers discover waning protection in Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, calling for a fourth shot. And a new BA.2 COVID variant spreads across Europe and Asia. So it seems the pandemic is not truly over until it’s over, and travelers may do well to venture forth accordingly.

Airing It Out.

In any event, if cushy staycations do give way to active awaycations, by what route? Airlines continue to dangle fare sales, even as they trim capacity and flight schedules—particularly cutting international runs. They also bypass war zone airspace, costly as these workarounds may be in terms of time and money all around. Moreover as motivated carriers currently may be to lure travelers (unrulies aside) with improved inflight security and service ratings (e.g., American Air now reinstates onboard alcohol sales), specters of chronic flight delays/cancellations, bumping or lost baggage, of strandings, mishandlings and chaotic terminal lines still abide—TSA FastPass and ‘Clear’ app or no.

Figure in the soaring price of jet fuel (20-25% of carrier operating expenses), and those promotional sales will soon be tattered in the airfare upwinds. With an unexpected 8-10% increase regarding late-pandemic passenger demand comes a nearly 30%+ jump in ppg jet fuel prices over Q4 2021, 45-70% over a year ago. So after losing tens of billions of dollars in 2020-21, airlines are keen to raise leisure fares at least 10%, with some (Delta to BA, Easyjet, certain Asian lines) applying surcharges as well, especially on international routes. Citing crew/staff shortages, plane delivery delays, now the Ukraine-Russian war, carriers are deliberately squeezing flight supply to largely fleece demand, toward a rapid climb to 2019 revenue levels.

For instance, airlines such as United have been limiting availability of their least expensive seats in 2022 thus far, stockpiling them as fares rise. Southwest Airlines, which uses fuel hedges to ward off the price hikes, concedes that at any rate, “…pricing is a function of what customers will pay.” And as for Ukraine, airlines were raising fares well before Russia commenced its assault.

Driveby Looting.

Speaking of fuelflation, gas pains at the pump are reaching alarming heights, but the soaring prices are really nothing new. Echoing the 1970s et al, prices per gallon (ppg) rise by the day, with the usual supply-demand imbalances and dynamics in play against us roadbound travelers.

Currently averaging $4.25 per gallon in some 35 states domestically, pump prices are projected to hit $4.50-$5 per at least through Labor Day—highest in the western US—even steeper in the UK and across Europe. Benchmark indicators such as EU Brent Crude have jumped (up 27% since the Ukraine war began) and US West Texas Intermediary (up 30%). But such surges cannot be blamed entirely on a resulting boycott of Russian gas/oil. That is because worldwide production has been severely slashed since 2020, essentially setting the stage for today’s sudden fungibility crunch

Moreover, the ‘drill, baby drill’ recourse is a non-starter these days, since most oil companies now choose to sacrifice actual exploration and production in favor of  investor-pleasing stock buybacks and fatter dividends.

Then comes the inevitable refinery runaround. ‘Untimely’ downstream production shortages are supposedly caused by closed/outdated or seasonal maintenance hobbled facilities, equipment shortages and/or labor strife. Or there’s the old saw that petroleum output is hindered by ‘onerous’ environmental regulations and the transition to lower carbon renewable fuels. Meanwhile pump prices soar by the mile as we take to the road, while various states push for a gas tax ‘holiday’—infrastructure/highway funding be damned for now. Some outliers are even floating the notion of ‘gasoline stimulus’ checks.

Little wonder we witness the rush hours to hybrid and electric vehicles—as fast as a necessary network of recharging stations can be implemented. Along those lines, the development of wireless charging stations and ‘electrified’ roadways will also come increasingly into focus.

Springing Forward.

Beyond that, crossing our early spring radar screens will be requisites and ramifications from the tragic Ukraine-Russia conflict: the refugee and volunteer displacement, terror and insurgent threats—munitions, even nuke mishap dangers. Surely they should all be considered in any risk/reward calculations vis à vis European travel over coming months, let alone the benefits of travel insurance. Strategy wise, it is a matter of booking early versus trolling for last-minute fare deals. Further, evolving COVID/post-coronavirus conditions and restrictions must be taken into account—ebb and flow, here and there, as should border/visa fluidity in a time of vastly increased migration worldwide.

Air travel issues will also range from the hazards of inflight safety/security and no-fly zone rerouting, to continued research into 5G-avionics static to the environmental impact of landing slot-saving ‘ghost flights’ deadheading throughout Europe. A resurgent cruise ship industry will come under no less scrutiny.

From a traveler (as consumer) standpoint, we will freely explore, if not exploit T/T industry/businesses local and far flung, large and small, that are anxious to accommodate and rebound from long pandemic slumps. Same time, we’ll navigate/negotiate through over-tourism swamped destinations and AirBnB-type rental abuses and community caps. Mode and product reviews will especially center on budding technologies in electric vehicles, motorized-cycles and all manner of wayfaring gear.

So never fear Vamigrés, double-deuce springtime is here and clear…looking to be a blooming and booming travel season, far and near. (MTC…)

 A Hoverview: (Winter, 2021/22)…

Travel as Common Carrier?

1/2/22++—Some cold, hard finger-pointing is going on out there these wintery days.

In certain quarters, travel is the culprit, the route and road to COVID-19 pandemic ruin: If mankind would just stop moving about, going places, this coronavirus siege could be long gone, if not mere sci-fi to begin with. And that goes double for air travel…

Witness the clinical and chattering class warnings against boarding a skin-tight airborne tube, confined for hours, elbow to elbow with scores of strangers harboring who knows what infectious diseases, transporting rapacious viral strains around the globe like Johnny Appleseed with cabin fever and a carry-on bag. No manner of VAXxing, masking or testing can stem that contagious tide; so stay the hell put wherever you may be, they say, and novel COVID variants would be confined to history’s labs and pipettes.

Guilt Tripping Over the Line?

Of course such an absolutist, alarmist take is no match for the foundational kinetic urges of human nature, let alone flying in the face of some pointed pandemic data research.

Moreover, most airlines are currently enforcing masking rules, however hazardous those efforts are too often proving to be. While COVID vaccination mandates for passengers and crews alike may be one CDC/Biden administration directive away—given waning immunity and the specter of future variants, not to mention hospitals already being under extreme stress. Indeed, the government will now require proof of vaccination for non-US citizens at all points of entry.

The airline industry at large surely begs to differ, much as it has begged for a $79bn federal bailout (in grants, loans and payroll support) since the COVID-19 pandemic touched down. Airlines-for-America cites as how the patchwork spread of coronavirus restrictions, distancing and lockdowns—most currently yo-yo omicron/delta curbs and closures—have already rattled carrier service and safety readiness to the very airframe as it is. AfA further notes how airlines from American to Virgin Atlantic are struggling to navigate the turbulence of conflicting health and political measures in some 60 nations worldwide, amid the turbulent surge of domestic passenger travel and plummeting of international flights.

In any event, carriers claim they have swiftly responded to omnicronic transmission of the virulent COVID disease and its variants with robust mask/VAX policies, constant sanitizing, deep cleaning of their airplanes, and advanced H.E.P.A.-filtered air recirculation systems. So that whatever travelers may face in air terminals, checkpoints, gates and jetways, “an airliner (itself) is the safest place you can be.”

Bans and Brickbats.

But tell that to the crews and stews, who are charged with jawboning passengers to mask up, if not VAX up and test/fly right—at the risk of their broken bones, at that. As headlines recount, flying is becoming more disturbingly dangerous for crew members at the hands of raging, unruly passengers. Such attacks on overworked onboard airline staffs who must defuse or actually wrestle with bad behavior distract from any focus on potential terrorist threats—not that ground/ramp workers are faring much better.

In 2021, the FAA reported a record 5,664 unruly incidents onboard, with 1,030 investigations and 315 enforcement cases. To where cockpit doors are locked tighter and tighter, flight attendants are looking to mandatory self-defense training; meanwhile no-fly lists are being compiled by the TSA, alongside the threat of revoking violators’ Fast Start and PreCheck privileges. Further, the US Justice Department is now prioritizing prosecution of unruly airline passengers who are accused of committing federal crimes. Any wonder crew and staffers are phoning it in of late?

Linked to this explosion in air rage incidents is the proliferation of to-go drinks in air terminals, particularly since some carriers have banned alcohol sales/service inflight. Nevertheless, the trigger in nearly half of these sometimes violent clashes (in aisles and seat rows) is ‘airplane’ as the nose on our faces.

‘Mask police’: it’s a stance besieged flight attendants, air marshals—even ‘good sam’ seatmates are loath to assume. But increasingly, there they be, on the tarmac or at 30,000 feet, because over 4,000 of these unruly dust-ups involve onboard mask-wearing policies/mandates.

Figuring the At-Odds.

Indeed, little doubt prolonged pandemic stressors and resentments are fueling mask and VAXxing resistance. Then again, so is the politicalization of COVID prevention and inconsistent restrictions. Equally contentious are a maddening range of arbitrary travel bans imposed by various governments and agencies—levels most centrally accessed in the US at cdc.gov.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Chief Medical Advisor to the President, insists that the bans “…don’t prevent, but delay these viruses from coming into countries”, ostensibly until medical science can research and implement a strategy for detection and prevention. Fauci even suggests that onboard masking may be here to stay.

Still, no less than the World Health Organization holds than such bans are unjust and counterproductive with considerable social and economic costs—and are much harder to lift than lay down. The W.H.O. also states that “COVID-19 constantly exploits our divisions, and that we will only get better of the virus if we work together for solutions”, much less that travel bans are often being wielded as geopolitical weapons.

Otherwise, as to seaworthiness versus seasickness, we will clearly follow the CDC’s latest attempts at cruise control, raising its status from risk level yellow to red. Specifically the agency has issued a “should be avoided” advisory on cruise travel, what with a surge of COVID outbreaks on nearly 90 pleasure ships plying global waters by Carnival, Disney, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean and other lines. The delta/omicron cases are said to spread among passengers and crews due to a mixed bag of mask rules and VAX requirements (a CDC sail warning expired 1/15)—prompting Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn) to call cruise ships “petri dishes of COVID infection.”

However, it’s not like the cruise industry has no sea legs to stand on. The Cruise Line International Association trade group counters that cases tied to cruise ships comprise a “…very slim minority of the total population onboard”—that they are mostly asymptomatic or mild, “posing little to no burden to medical resources…” A CLIA statement further maintains cruise ships provides a “highly controlled environment”…and testing and vaccination levels far above other travel modes and venues, with lower COVID-19 incidence rates than those onshore. In any case, it remains to be seen if their now voluntary safety positions hold water vis-à-vis the traveling public.

Season of the Glitch?

All things considered, what should our VamoStrategies be moving forward, our approach to building viable Vamentum in these pressure packed, volatile times. Do we make our travel decisions based on true desire or raw data-driven points; better plan and book our trips with dodgy 3rd-party vendors/sites or directly with the carriers themselves? How can we best negotiate the squall of restrictions, closings and lockdowns, game the Clear or TSA PreCheck paid dedicated lanes vs. new freebie Fast Lane reservations?

What mix of vaccinations (mRNA or J&J, one-to booster shots) if any, masking (N95, etc.), test results (PCR or antigen) and other documents will enable us to avoid isolation and/or quarantines—being waylaid with high positivity rates in another destination or country? How do we minimize the risk of snowballing delays or cancellations, getting stranded with luggage piling up? Much less negotiate the labyrinth of airline contract-of-carriage refund policies, or even murkier rebooking, rerouting, voucher or credits detours from redeeming cash in hand (especially on economy class tix)—let alone traversing the trammels of travel insurance.

Then if and when onboard, what about sidestepping middle row, seatback agony, avoiding the ‘rushing roulette’ of landing next to unVAXxed, unmasked marauders in the cabin among us, along with some potentially crazed unrulies cocked and loaded to detonate. All told, these and vastly other concerns will become increasingly weighty as airlines continue to shed flights and route service well into the winter months. So together, we shall see and do…

More broadly, Vamigré will track various ongoing issues—not least the FAA and airlines vs. telecom’s 5G deployment (compromise in works for telecoms to dial back 5G signal power near airports on a six-month trial basis) . Airbus’s gains vs. Boeing‘s pain. The greening of aviation, and gas vs. electric vehicles. Amtrak‘s new regime and rail bucks infusion. The soaring price of passports and countdown to Real I.D.s. Weather vs. whether not to go at all: that’s just for starters. Still, the chilliest issue this wintery season remains if/how we travelers are the problem—the carrier pigeons of all things COVID.

Accordingly, Vamigré gives the middle finger to all the finger-pointing, determined to forge a better way. For truth be told, the authorities have their pulpits and pressers, the airlines and tourism industry have their trade groups, crews and staffers have their unions, but we travelers have merely had cons/come-ons and crickets, until now…

Honestly, if we’re to be tagged the pandemic bogeyman, let’s boogie, man—safely and surely striving to be the escape GOAT of all scapegoats—shrewdly getting and being the better of travel naysayers whenever and wherever we go, whatever this winter season has in store. (MMTC…)